MyDD :: Florida Gubernatorial Race: First round of polling

Florida Gubernatorial Race: First round of polling

by kitsae, Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 03:14:57 PM EST

Mason-Dixon Poll:

Democratic Primary: Castor 35%, Chiles 19%, Davis 9%, Smith 4%;

Republican Primary: Crist 34%, Gallagher 19%, Jennings 9%

This looks good for Crist, since he is going up against two big-name candidates (the lieutenant governor and CFO of state.)

Bad news for Castor. She just came off a high profile race (highest profile senate race in the country?) and doesn't even poll close to 50%.

Good start for Bud Chiles. He can certainly build off of the 19% boost he gets off of name recognition alone.

See story here.

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Um... (none / 0)

Why is Castor polling ahead of Chiles? Does Chiles have a good chance of surpassing her? I think he stands a much better chance against Crist than she does, so...

by raginillinoian on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 03:50:52 PM EST

Re: Um... (none / 0)

Why is Castor polling ahead of Chiles?? Because she was a state senator, was elected twice statewide as Commissioner of Education, was president of the University of South Florida, and just came off a very close race for US Senate whereas Bud Chiles has never run for office and hasn't been particularly active in politics. I guarantee you most of the 19% in the poll that it was his Dad running.

And how can you say Castor ran a bad race for Senate?? She crushed 2 strong primary opponents, and she ran well ahead of John Kerry. If he would have done a little better, she would be in the Senate right now. And so would Tom Daschle.

You guys might prefer someone else for Governor, and But Chiles may be a better candidate for the office, but please don't criticized Castor for her race. She was a great candidate who ran a great race, but came up a little short just like most democrats across the county in 2004.

by Big Talk on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 05:01:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Um... (none / 0)

I agree - Castor nearly took the senate seat. What I find astounding, though, is that her numbers are so low given that a) this poll is limited only to Democrats, and b) her public profile among democrats is only a mere few months removed from what was arguably the most high profile senate race in the country.

by kitsae on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 05:32:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

good news for Castor (none / 0)

Castor leads by 15%, is getting 35%, with 33% undecided-- it's probably the sort of "bad news" she'll win with rather easily. That said, Chiles is within striking distance. Overall, that's too high of an undecided to say for sure, but if half the undecided go to Castor, she wins, so she's starting off from a pretty strong position.

by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 03:57:05 PM EST

Re: good news for Castor (none / 0)

This makes me unhappy. I mean, I like Castor, but she blew it last year. She led in most polls, and ended up losing to a right-winged slug just because she didn't campaign effectively.

The name "Chiles" alone makes Bud a very good choice. I really hope he wins the primary.

by raginillinoian on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 03:59:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: good news for Castor (none / 0)

The only thing that may give Castor a better shot next year as opposed to last is that she probably won't be running against a Latino, therefore winning Miami-Dade shouldn't be much of a problem.

by raginillinoian on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 04:04:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: good news for Castor (none / 0)

I believe it is confounding (and sad to be honest) that she is polling so low given that we are a mere few months removed from what was arguably the highest profile senate race in the country.

by kitsae on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 05:29:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

sounds familiar (none / 0)

....from a November 2003 Mason-Dixon poll

Castor had 27-percent support in the poll, to 11 percent for Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas and 9 percent for U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch, D-Pembroke Pines. But 51 percent of those polled said they were undecided.

...from a July 2004 Mason-Dixon poll

387 LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS

QUESTION: If the 2004 Democratic primary election for U.S. Senate were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote:
Betty Castor     37%
Peter Deutsch     21%
Alex Penelas     10%
Bernard Klein     1%
Undecided (NOT READ)     31%

...and of course, then there's primary day 2004

United States Senator

Betty Castor     669,346-->58.1%
Peter Deutsch     321,922-->27.9%
Bernard E. Klein 45,347-->3.9%
Alex Penelas 115,898-->10.1%

by blueflorida on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 05:26:33 PM EST

Re: sounds familiar (none / 0)

I believe very different circumstances render these numbers circumstantial and anecdotal at best.

by kitsae on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 05:34:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: sounds familiar (none / 0)

You're right, this is a very different circumstance.

Peter Deutch was a 6 term congressman and former state rep. Alex Penelas was mayor of Miami-Dade county. They both had political bases and experience in campaigning.

Bud Chiles has never ran for office before, and to the best of my knowledge, hasn't been very active in politics of late.

If Chiles is such a great candidate, why did Sen. Bill Nelson ask Bob Graham to come out of retirement and run for Governor?

by Big Talk on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 06:08:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: sounds familiar (none / 0)

Because Nelson is desperate, and has every right to be.

Bud Chiles has been active in politics all of his life. He is an established entrepreneur, recently serves as vice-president of one of the largest charities in the world, and knows florida like the back of his hand due to his years of association with his father.

He would be a refreshing figure for Florida. He could run as an outsider, like Jeb Bush (who had no political experience, and had ran a failed bid against his father 4 years earlier).

And, as you see, the name Chiles is gold in Florida. A 19% base, more than half of Castor's support, and he never has ran before, has no political base, etc.... All you say just bolsters how significant this polling percentage is.

by kitsae on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 06:47:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: sounds familiar (none / 0)

Kitsae, your ingoring the large 1/3rd that don't show a preference. With that taken in mind, Castor at 34% is pretty good, but so is Chiles at 19% too.

by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 06:33:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: sounds familiar (none / 0)

I agree, 1/3 is huge, but this in itself does not refute my comments - that it is confounding that Castor doesn't attract more of the Democratic vote in this poll. Even if she gets the all of the 7% error margin in her favor, she still gets only 40%.

I still believe that coming off such a high profile race, in which she did quite well in - this number is very unremarkable.

by kitsae on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 06:49:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

floor or ceiling? (none / 0)

Here's the thing with Chiles' name recognition. 19% is definitely pretty good. However, the essential question is whether this 19% represents a floor or a ceiling for him. It's hard to say what the actual primary 2006 field is going to be, but if Chiles is going to have to find a way to increase his support by about 15-20% in order to be in a serious position to win. The Chiles name has worth to it, but it alone isn't going to move him 15 points in the polls, especially if he's running against Castor. Castor's support isn't going to dramatically increase, but she's only looking at having to increase by about 5-10% in order to win.

Remember, Peter Deutsch spent more than $5M on his primary campaign, had support from several major African-American leaders, and his vote base was in massively Democratic Broward County, while Betty only spent $4M and hadn't run for office in FL since '90. Deutsch was on TV statewide for a full month before Castor ever ran a single TV ad. And the polls didn't move a bit.

Now even if Chiles is a better personality than Deutsch was (which I fully believe is the case), moving up 15% in the polls is an enormously difficult thing especially against someone that everyone basically likes and thinks is a decent person (even if they weren't driven to rapture by her persona).

by blueflorida on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 07:09:40 PM EST

Re: floor or ceiling? (none / 0)

I think with 1/3 undecided, it is statistically impossible for one candidate to capture the overwhelming majority of this electorate.

Therefore, the 19% is not a ceiling for Chiles.

And he has received that 19% without spending a dime.

by kitsae on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 08:11:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

my brother in Broward County (none / 0)

says that Lawton Chiles used to do really well in the Cuban community. How well did Castor do among Cubans? Is it possible that Bud Chiles could win the state just by pulling a little bit more of the Cuban vote?

See if Saxby Chambliss is helping you.

by desmoinesdem on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 09:17:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: my brother in Broward County (none / 0)

He may do better with the Hispanic community by virtue of the fact that he won't be running against a hispanic.

That in itself would definitely allow him to with Dade County, for example, which Castor failed to do but John Kerry did (one of the few cases in which Kerry outperformed Castor, and a direct result of a Hispanic candidate running against Castor.)

Chiles can and will do better with the Hispanic community in this election, but I must concede, so will Castor if she is the nominee.

by kitsae on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 10:02:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: floor or ceiling? (none / 0)

Let's be honest. Unfortunately, the way to raise your poll numbers and swing those 1/3 who are undecided is to raise the money for TV ads.

How does Chiles raise $5 milllion for a primary?

Castor just raised 12 million for her race, has a large database of supporters, and can raise the money needed.

Jim Davis should be able to raise money as an incumbent congressman. Scott Maddox as party chair has been going the state working donors for 2 years.

How does Chiles break out from the pack and convince donors to support him?

by Big Talk on Thu Jan 27, 2005 at 11:53:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: floor or ceiling? (none / 0)

A) At minimum, 75% of the money Castor raised was spend in the general election. It would be ludicrous to claim Bud needs $5 million for a primary.

Castor was vastly outspend by Deutsch, and she didn't have close to that to spend in her primary (more like half of that is more accurate). Just goes to show you that this is not solely a money issue.

B) This is where his father helps. His father's entire political network is still in tact, and that is a HUGE fundraising base.

Bud Chiles formerly owned a communications firm, which his father ran his last 1994 campaign from. These contacts were in operation up until the Chiles term ended in 1999, and helped raised millions for Buddy McKay (although he passed away a month earlier.)

In short, since he ran this firm, he has all the contacts and knows how to raise money (which Castor wasn't familiar with at first, and never really was comfortable with.)

Also, you think many of those Deutsch fundraisers that helped him rase $4-5 million for the primary will be supporting Castor in this race? Not many of them, thats for sure. That $$$ is going to Bud.

Don't underestimate Bud's ability to raise money. He will have plenty for the primary.

by kitsae on Thu Jan 27, 2005 at 12:31:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: floor or ceiling? (none / 0)

A) Castor raised about $5 million for the primary. That's where I get the figure for what is needed in the Governor's race. I know that for a state race there is a lower limit ($500) and I'm not sure but there may be some public financing. Still Chiles, or anyone else, will need at least $3-5 million to be competitive.

B) Deutsch spent $6 million for the senate primary, but most of it came from the money he transfered over from his congressional account and personal loans. He actually raised very little money for the senate race. Do you really think that DC PACs, Deutsch's New York family and friends, and the orthodox jewish community in Broward county will be bankrolling the ole he-coon's son?

C) Deutsch outspent Castor in the primary, and yet still could not gain any ground in the polls. So how does Bud overcome her double digit lead even if he is able to outraise her?

C) I serioulsy doubt that Chile's "entire political network" is still intact. Chiles ran last in 1994, 11 years ago. Surely many of his friends and contributors have passed away or gotten out of politics. Plus, didn't the last time Chiles ran he limited himself to $100 contributions? It's not like Lawton was a prolific fundraiser.

by Big Talk on Thu Jan 27, 2005 at 01:31:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: floor or ceiling? (none / 0)

Letters correspond to your comments:

A) Betty raised 5 million for the primary? Think again.

Look at her campaign finance report. You are focusing on MONEY RAISED, when you should focus on MONEY DISBURBED.

When focusing on MONEY DISBURSED, you will see that you are nearly 2 million off.

And with polling showing she would be a clear winner in the primary, she had already started ad buys in August for September. This amounted to roughly $500,000.

Just look at the report. My source: www.tray.com.

Note: You're university needs a subscription, of you may have to purchase.

B) Hell yes - over "terrorist" Betty Castor any day of the year.

C) You said in your original post that Bud needed $5 million to raise his profile with the 1/3 undecideds, but then agree with me that it didn't help Deutsch and that money alone isn't the issue. Which is it?

D) Precisely because he limited contributions to $100, and still won, is a testament to his fundraising prowess. You need many more heads at $100 each than at $2000 each.

by kitsae on Thu Jan 27, 2005 at 01:58:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: floor or ceiling? (none / 0)

A) Yes, when looking at what Betty RAISED for the primary, I actually looked at amount RAISED, not DISBURSED.

The last report before the August 31st primary, was on August due 8/16 and covered contributions up to 8/11.

That report showed she had raised $4,536,436 and spent $3,777,224. That was 20 days before the primary election.

My source: fec.gov.

Castor did not buy ads in August for September. That's a rediculous statement. How do you know that?

She ran ads up to primary election day, then went off the air for a couple of weeks, including during our first hurricane, then ran her first general election ad in the middle of September.

B) Yes, the Deutsch loyalist (both of them) will not support Castor, but they won't support Chiles, at least not in any kind of serious way financialy.

C) That is exactly my point. Deutsch out spent Castor, and couldn't make up any ground. So how does Chiles get outspent by her and make up that ground? He can't. He has to spend raise and spend significantly more money than she does to even have a chance. But as a first time candidate, even with all of his advantages, it is very unlikely he can do that.

If Betty runs for Governor, she will be the nominee. No doubt.

However, the entire arguement is meaningless. I doubt she will run.

by Big Talk on Thu Jan 27, 2005 at 03:01:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: floor or ceiling? (none / 0)

A) So if she spent 3.7 in the primary, you are about 1.3 million off from your original figure.

That is NOT including her September ad buy. When you are in politics, if you don't buy ads in advance for certain markets, your competition will get them first.

Its common sense.

So to reiterate your original (and now inaccurate statement) Castor did not spend 5 million in the primary, and neither does Bud to win it.

B)Can you see into the future? I thought so.

C) First, you assume that Castor will outraise Chiles. Second, you assume that Bud will run the same campaign as Deutsch.

Too many intangibles here. You can predict, but then your point is just that - simply a prediction.

You are right, this argument is becoming meaningless. My original point was that things look bad for Castor if she polls only in the 30's after coming off such a high-profile campaign, during a presidential election year.

I never said that she will definitely lose, or that Bud will definitely win. I simply said it looks bad for Castor, and good for Bud.

We have strayed considerably from this original point.

In any case, I do believe (Im not saying definitely) Castor will run for governor. How else do you explain her starting this new PAC and raising money so early on (in the same fashion that Jeb did immediately after his loss to Bud SR.)

by kitsae on Thu Jan 27, 2005 at 03:27:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: floor or ceiling? (none / 0)

A) As I said previously, she had spent $3.7 million 20 days before the primary. Factoring in the last 3 weeks of TV (when campaigns have the heaviest ad buys),direct mail, and a GOTV effort then she certainly spent $5 million in the primary. That's an accurate statement.

The castor people did not buy their september tv ads during the primary. I understand how ad buys work in politics. Yes, you buy ahead of time, but not for the general when you haven't even won the primary yet. Espically since Martinez didn't go up until after her. She went up the middle of September with the money that flowed into the campaign after she became the nominee.

by Big Talk on Thu Jan 27, 2005 at 03:57:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: floor or ceiling? (none / 0)

A) Castor had it rapped up by mid august and pre-purchased at time. Show me evidence that she didn't then.

She HAD to do this because once the primary ended, she could no longer use her primary money in the general election.

THAT is why the election caps reset. For instance, you could give 2k for the primary and 2k for the general. If what you were saying was true, it wouldn't make a difference if they gave 4k in the general and 0 in the primary, or vice-versa. But the caps are there for this very reason.

Its Florida election law - look it up. That is why she bre-bought ads. Because if she didn't, she would be unable to spend money raised in this period.

B) You are revising your statement now, to throw in GOTV and all this other stuff to stretch that she spend 5 million in the primary. The fact is that she did not. (For instance, she pre-purchased ads, etc... see above.)

And even if she did, I don't see how you can make the stretch that bud HAS to spend at least that much. Different race, different candidates, different dynamics, different office, and a non-presidential year.

Too many intangibles to make a statement like that, anyway. That is why this argument is as pointless as they come.

by kitsae on Thu Jan 27, 2005 at 04:11:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: floor or ceiling? (none / 0)

Wow, you are way off on this one.

Castor ran for US Senate. A federal office. State of Florida election laws do not apply to a US Senate race. Look it up.

YOU MOST DEFINITELY CAN USE MONEY RAISED IN THE PRIMARY FOR THE GENERAL ELECTION.

You do not have to spend all the money raised for a primary in the primary. There are thousands of examples of this. That is why Deutsch was able to build a war chest through the years that he was able to transfer to the senate campaign. Bill Nelson has $2 million in his account and is actively raising more, but he won't have any primary oppisition. Why? To spend in the general election against a republican.

You are the one making this outrageous claim that Castor bought September ad time in August, before she even won the primary. You prove it. You can't. It didn't happen.

by Big Talk on Thu Jan 27, 2005 at 04:48:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: floor or ceiling? (none / 0)

Florida election codes reference federal status. I've poured over them myself.

Also, I never said you could not transfer money from accounts from different offices held.

How does this prove that Castor didn't buy airtime for September in August? It doesn't.

And furthermore, how does this off-base argument disprove my original assertion that Bud Chiles doesn't require 5 million.

To quote myself:

"And even if she did, I don't see how you can make the stretch that bud HAS to spend at least that much. Different race, different candidates, different dynamics, different office, and a non-presidential year.

Too many intangibles to make a statement like that, anyway. That is why this argument is as pointless as they come."

So your argument is completely moot, even if I grant every single thing you say.

You have still not disproved my original statement, which was the basis for this entire thread. Maybe its because you made a mistake trying to, then tried to switch the argument to something else. Cheap trick.

"My original point was that things look bad for Castor if she polls only in the 30's after coming off such a high-profile campaign, during a presidential election year."

That's the original statement. Everything else you have stated is completely irrelevant and off-base.

by kitsae on Thu Jan 27, 2005 at 04:56:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Kennedy (none / 0)

I heard Kennedy might be running.

The Kentucky Democrat

by kydem on Wed Jan 26, 2005 at 07:50:36 PM EST

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